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Strogino U20 vs Fakel U19 — Youth Championship 2026

Strogino U20
Strogino U20
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Fakel U19
Fakel U19
9/13/2024Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Relegation Round - 3Stadion Yantar'

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Strogino U2050%
×Draw23%
Fakel U1927%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Strogino U20
1.79
Fakel U19
1.27

Strogino U20 creates 41% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 60 away

creates per match

Strogino U20
1.84
Fakel U19
1.12

allows per match

Strogino U20
1.43
Fakel U19
1.75

finishing

Strogino U20+0.00on par
Fakel U19+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Strogino U20 ↓

Fakel U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Strogino U20 or draw
73%
Strogino U20 or Fakel U19
77%
Draw or Fakel U19
50%

Winning margin

Strogino U20 wins by 2+
27%
Fakel U19 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Strogino U20 1+ goals
83%
Strogino U20 2+ goals
53%
Strogino U20 3+ goals
26%
Fakel U19 1+ goals
72%
Fakel U19 2+ goals
36%
Fakel U19 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Strogino U20 (draw refunded)
65%
Fakel U19 (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Strogino U20 at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.43 · 56 matches

Fakel U19 away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.75 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Strogino U20 attack 1.84 + Fakel U19 defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.79

Fakel U19 attack 1.12 + Strogino U20 defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Strogino U20 scores more
50%
level
23%
Fakel U19 scores more
27%

Strogino U20 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Strogino U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Strogino U20 vs Fakel U19

Fakel U19 beat Strogino U20 2-1 in Youth Championship on September 13, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Yantar' in Moskva.