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Fakel U19 vs Strogino U20 — Youth Championship 2026

Fakel U19
Fakel U19
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Strogino U20
Strogino U20
10/25/2024Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Relegation Round - 8Stadion Lokomotiv Voronezh

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Fakel U1945%
×Draw24%
Strogino U2031%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fakel U19
1.69
Strogino U20
1.35

Fakel U19 creates 25% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 56 away

creates per match

Fakel U19
1.47
Strogino U20
1.45

allows per match

Fakel U19
1.25
Strogino U20
1.91

finishing

Fakel U19+0.00on par
Strogino U20+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fakel U19 ↓

Strogino U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Fakel U19 or draw
69%
Fakel U19 or Strogino U20
76%
Draw or Strogino U20
55%

Winning margin

Fakel U19 wins by 2+
24%
Strogino U20 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Fakel U19 1+ goals
82%
Fakel U19 2+ goals
50%
Fakel U19 3+ goals
24%
Strogino U20 1+ goals
74%
Strogino U20 2+ goals
39%
Strogino U20 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Fakel U19 (draw refunded)
60%
Strogino U20 (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fakel U19 at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.25 · 60 matches

Strogino U20 away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.91 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fakel U19 attack 1.47 + Strogino U20 defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.69

Strogino U20 attack 1.45 + Fakel U19 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Fakel U19 scores more
45%
level
24%
Strogino U20 scores more
31%

Fakel U19 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Fakel U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fakel U19 vs Strogino U20

Fakel U19 beat Strogino U20 3-0 in Youth Championship on October 25, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv Voronezh in Voronezh.