Stripfing 2–4 TWL Elektra: Result & Stats

Stripfing

FT

2 – 4

HT: 2 – 0

TWL Elektra

1/19/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Generali Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Stripfing14%

×Draw16%

TWL Elektra70%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StripfingExpected goals in this matchTWL Elektra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

2.90

Stripfing

1.27

TWL Elektra

2.90

TWL Elektra creates 128% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

1.20

creates per match

4.00

1.80

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Stripfing

1.20

TWL Elektra

4.00

allows per match

Stripfing

1.80

TWL Elektra

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stripfing+0.00on par

TWL Elektra+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stripfing ↓

TWL Elektra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–27%

0–36%

0–45%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–28%

1–38%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–14%

2–25%

2–35%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

Stripfing or draw

30%

Stripfing or TWL Elektra

84%

Draw or TWL Elektra

86%

Winning margin

Stripfing wins by 2+

5%

TWL Elektra wins by 2+

50%

Team goals

Stripfing 1+ goals

72%

Stripfing 2+ goals

36%

Stripfing 3+ goals

14%

TWL Elektra 1+ goals

94%

TWL Elektra 2+ goals

78%

TWL Elektra 3+ goals

54%

Draw no bet

Stripfing (draw refunded)

17%

TWL Elektra (draw refunded)

83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stripfing at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

TWL Elektra away — creates 4.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stripfing attack 1.20 + TWL Elektra defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.27

TWL Elektra attack 4.00 + Stripfing defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Stripfing scores more

14%

level

16%

TWL Elektra scores more

70%

TWL Elektra at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "TWL Elektra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff