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Stripfing vs TWL Elektra — Regionalliga - Ost 2018

Stripfing
Stripfing
FT
4 – 2
HT: 3 – 1
TWL Elektra
TWL Elektra
8/28/2021Regionalliga - OstRegionalliga - Ost · Ost - 5Sportplatz Stripfing SV

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Stripfing65%
×Draw19%
TWL Elektra15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stripfing
2.21
TWL Elektra
0.96

Stripfing creates 130% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 73 away

creates per match

Stripfing
2.37
TWL Elektra
1.23

allows per match

Stripfing
0.68
TWL Elektra
2.04

finishing

Stripfing+0.00on par
TWL Elektra+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stripfing ↓

TWL Elektra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Stripfing or draw
85%
Stripfing or TWL Elektra
81%
Draw or TWL Elektra
35%

Winning margin

Stripfing wins by 2+
42%
TWL Elektra wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Stripfing 1+ goals
89%
Stripfing 2+ goals
65%
Stripfing 3+ goals
38%
TWL Elektra 1+ goals
62%
TWL Elektra 2+ goals
25%
TWL Elektra 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Stripfing (draw refunded)
81%
TWL Elektra (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stripfing at home — creates 2.37, concedes 0.68 · 41 matches

TWL Elektra away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.04 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stripfing attack 2.37 + TWL Elektra defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 2.21

TWL Elektra attack 1.23 + Stripfing defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Stripfing scores more
65%
level
19%
TWL Elektra scores more
15%

Stripfing at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Stripfing will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Ost: Stripfing 4–2 TWL Elektra

Stripfing beat TWL Elektra 4-2 in Regionalliga - Ost on August 28, 2021.

The match was played at Sportplatz Stripfing SV in Stripfing.