Strindheim 1–2 Stjørdals-Blink: Result & Stats

Strindheim

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Stjørdals-Blink

A. Nytoft 38'

J. Selnaes 60'

A. Fossli 52'

6/8/2024

2. Division - Group 2 · Group 2 - 10Leangen Bolig Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Strindheim42%

×Draw23%

Stjørdals-Blink35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StrindheimExpected goals in this matchStjørdals-Blink

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.63

Strindheim

1.79

Stjørdals-Blink

1.63

Strindheim creates 10% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 45 away

1.73

creates per match

1.80

1.46

allows per match

1.84

creates per match

Strindheim

1.73

Stjørdals-Blink

1.80

allows per match

Strindheim

1.46

Stjørdals-Blink

1.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Strindheim+0.00on par

Stjørdals-Blink+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Strindheim ↓

Stjørdals-Blink →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Strindheim or draw

65%

Strindheim or Stjørdals-Blink

77%

Draw or Stjørdals-Blink

58%

Winning margin

Strindheim wins by 2+

22%

Stjørdals-Blink wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Strindheim 1+ goals

83%

Strindheim 2+ goals

53%

Strindheim 3+ goals

26%

Stjørdals-Blink 1+ goals

80%

Stjørdals-Blink 2+ goals

48%

Stjørdals-Blink 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Strindheim (draw refunded)

54%

Stjørdals-Blink (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Strindheim at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.46 · 26 matches

Stjørdals-Blink away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.84 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Strindheim attack 1.73 + Stjørdals-Blink defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.79

Stjørdals-Blink attack 1.80 + Strindheim defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Strindheim scores more

42%

level

23%

Stjørdals-Blink scores more

35%

Strindheim at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Strindheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'

38'

39'

51'

52'

54'

60'

65'

75'

A. Angellsen← B. Andresen

75'

P. Strand← E. Kizilirmak

77'

A. Solberg← A. Gløsen

77'

E. Vangen← K. Rolstad

80'

A. Bartel← A. Fossli

88'

J. S. Selnaes

90'

J. Solem

90+3'

A. Pettersen← R. Hermanstad

Strindheim

Stjørdals-Blink

1

Bergslid

3

Knutsen

2

▼

16

7

6

8

▼

Gløsen

15

⚽

Selnaes

18

Havig

20

⚽

▼

Fossli

11

▼

21

22

16

25

▼

Andresen

2

▼

Risan

8

Lund

9

⚽

Nytoft

19

Solem

39

▼

Kizilirma

10

Kosberg

66

Hammerås

Manager: P. Rinnan

65'▲N. Solem←▼S. Risan

75'▲A. Angellsen←▼B. Andresen

75'▲P. Strand←▼E. Kizilirmak

Strindheim substitutes

15Solem20Angellsen5Strand7Tørstad12Misje17Saugestad24Amundsen27Dønnem42Andersen

Manager: M. Jacobsen

77'▲A. Solberg←▼A. Gløsen

77'▲E. Vangen←▼K. Rolstad

80'▲A. Bartel←▼A. Fossli

90+3'▲A. Pettersen←▼R. Hermanstad

Stjørdals-Blink substitutes

4Solberg22Vangen27Bartel10Pettersen5Standal12Havig23Einarson28Borseth