Strindheim 0–2 Grorud: Result & Stats

Strindheim

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Grorud

L. Fajfric 87'

P. Asp 8'

6/1/2025

2. Division - Group 2 · Group 2 - 8Leangen Bolig Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Strindheim38%

×Draw23%

Grorud39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StrindheimExpected goals in this matchGrorud

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.63

Strindheim

1.60

Grorud

1.63

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 38 away

1.73

creates per match

1.79

1.46

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Strindheim

1.73

Grorud

1.79

allows per match

Strindheim

1.46

Grorud

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Strindheim+0.00on par

Grorud+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Strindheim ↓

Grorud →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Strindheim or draw

61%

Strindheim or Grorud

77%

Draw or Grorud

62%

Winning margin

Strindheim wins by 2+

19%

Grorud wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Strindheim 1+ goals

80%

Strindheim 2+ goals

47%

Strindheim 3+ goals

22%

Grorud 1+ goals

80%

Grorud 2+ goals

48%

Grorud 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Strindheim (draw refunded)

49%

Grorud (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Strindheim at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.46 · 26 matches

Grorud away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.47 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Strindheim attack 1.73 + Grorud defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.60

Grorud attack 1.79 + Strindheim defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Strindheim scores more

38%

level

23%

Grorud scores more

39%

Grorud at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Grorud will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

S. Beck

8'

P. Asp

37'

V. Kvande

46'

A. Reiertsen Angellsen← A. Kebe

46'

H. Standal← F. Nyheim

50'

B. Brevik

64'

J. Rasen← K. Otman

77'

P. Johansen← V. Kvande

77'

N. Knoff← A. Glosen

87'

L. Fajfric

Strindheim

Grorud

1

19

25

2

10

16

▼

6

11

5

32

9

⚽

1

4

18

22

6

▼

Glosen

25

Morkved

14

▼

Nyheim

28

▼

Kebe

17

Berge

9

Feldt

29

▼

Kvande

Manager: P. Rinnan

46'▲A. Reiertsen Angellsen←▼A. Kebe

46'▲H. Standal←▼F. Nyheim

77'▲P. Johansen←▼V. Kvande

77'▲N. Knoff←▼A. Glosen

Strindheim substitutes

12Misje3Brauteset7Saugestad11Johansen20Angellsen24Amundsen26Knoff39Kizilirmak55Standal

Manager: A. Alrek

64'▲J. Rasen←▼K. Otman

Grorud substitutes

31Moe4Brennhaugen7Etholm14Victorio17Rasen20Fajfric23Sosseh27Omar