Grorud 1–3 Strindheim: Result & Stats

Grorud

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Strindheim

M. Dubois 31'

J. Kosberg 83', 37'

N. Solem 11'

4/6/2024

2. Division - Group 2 · Group 2 - 1Grorud stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Grorud65%

×Draw17%

Strindheim18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GrorudExpected goals in this matchStrindheim

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.71

1.39

Grorud

2.71

Strindheim

1.39

Grorud creates 95% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 26 away

2.62

creates per match

1.35

1.43

allows per match

2.81

creates per match

Grorud

2.62

Strindheim

1.35

allows per match

Grorud

1.43

Strindheim

2.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Grorud+0.00on par

Strindheim+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grorud ↓

Strindheim →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–16%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Grorud or draw

82%

Grorud or Strindheim

83%

Draw or Strindheim

35%

Winning margin

Grorud wins by 2+

44%

Strindheim wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Grorud 1+ goals

93%

Grorud 2+ goals

75%

Grorud 3+ goals

50%

Strindheim 1+ goals

75%

Strindheim 2+ goals

40%

Strindheim 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Grorud (draw refunded)

78%

Strindheim (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grorud at home — creates 2.62, concedes 1.43 · 42 matches

Strindheim away — creates 1.35, concedes 2.81 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grorud attack 2.62 + Strindheim defence 2.81 → ÷2 → 2.71

Strindheim attack 1.35 + Grorud defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Grorud scores more

65%

level

17%

Strindheim scores more

18%

Grorud at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Grorud will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

25'

31'

37'

61'

61'

A. Tjomsland← M. Mahnin

74'

L. Fajfric← H. Øen Paulsrud

83'

T. Agelin← S. Beck

83'

A. Angellsen← B. Andresen

83'

J. Kosberg

86'

E. Kizilirmak← E. Selnes

90'

M. Andersen

90'

S. Halgunset← M. Hammerås

Grorud

Strindheim

21

Aasbø

15

⚽

Solem

16

Nyheim

25

▼

2

8

9

19

10

⚽2

Kosberg

66

▼

Hammerås

14

▼

1

2

4

5

27

▼

Paulsrud

19

▼

Mahnin

6

▼

Beck

9

Sereba

17

Sa'Ad

10

⚽

Dubois

14

Asp

Manager: A. Alrek

61'▲A. Tjomsland←▼M. Mahnin

74'▲L. Fajfric←▼H. Øen Paulsrud

83'▲T. Agelin←▼S. Beck

Grorud substitutes

8Tjomsland20Fajfric3Agelin12Rychter22Housni18Massini32Akthar

Manager: P. Rinnan

83'▲A. Angellsen←▼B. Andresen

86'▲E. Kizilirmak←▼E. Selnes

90'▲S. Halgunset←▼M. Hammerås

Strindheim substitutes

20Angellsen39Kizilirmak22Halgunset12Misje24Amundsen30Lervik

2. Division - Group 2: Grorud 1–3 Strindheim

Strindheim beat Grorud 3-1 in 2. Division - Group 2 on April 6, 2024.

Goals: N. Solem (11'), M. Dubois (31'), J. Kosberg (37', 83').

The match was played at Grorud stadion in Oslo.

Grorud vs Strindheim — 2. Division - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

2. Division - Group 2: Grorud 1–3 Strindheim