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Strausberg vs Staaken — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Strausberg
Strausberg
CANC
12:00
Staaken
Staaken
4/18/2021Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 27Energie Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Strausberg54%
×Draw20%
Staaken26%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Strausberg
2.31
Staaken
1.59

Strausberg creates 45% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 66 away

creates per match

Strausberg
2.60
Staaken
1.38

allows per match

Strausberg
1.80
Staaken
2.02

finishing

Strausberg+0.00on par
Staaken+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Strausberg ↓

Staaken →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Strausberg or draw
74%
Strausberg or Staaken
80%
Draw or Staaken
46%

Winning margin

Strausberg wins by 2+
33%
Staaken wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Strausberg 1+ goals
90%
Strausberg 2+ goals
67%
Strausberg 3+ goals
40%
Staaken 1+ goals
80%
Staaken 2+ goals
47%
Staaken 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Strausberg (draw refunded)
67%
Staaken (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Strausberg at home — creates 2.60, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Staaken away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.02 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Strausberg attack 2.60 + Staaken defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 2.31

Staaken attack 1.38 + Strausberg defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Strausberg scores more
54%
level
20%
Staaken scores more
26%

Strausberg at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Strausberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Strausberg host Staaken

April 18, 2021: Strausberg take on Staaken in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Strausberg host Staaken at Energie Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.