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Staaken vs Strausberg — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Staaken
Staaken
FT
2 – 0
Strausberg
Strausberg
10/31/2020Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 10Sportpark Staaken

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Staaken60%
×Draw21%
Strausberg20%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Staaken
2.13
Strausberg
1.15

Staaken creates 85% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 4 away

creates per match

Staaken
2.00
Strausberg
0.50

allows per match

Staaken
1.79
Strausberg
2.25

finishing

Staaken+0.00on par
Strausberg+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Staaken ↓

Strausberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Staaken or draw
80%
Staaken or Strausberg
79%
Draw or Strausberg
40%

Winning margin

Staaken wins by 2+
37%
Strausberg wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Staaken 1+ goals
88%
Staaken 2+ goals
63%
Staaken 3+ goals
35%
Strausberg 1+ goals
68%
Strausberg 2+ goals
32%
Strausberg 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Staaken (draw refunded)
75%
Strausberg (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Staaken at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.79 · 67 matches

Strausberg away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Staaken attack 2.00 + Strausberg defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.13

Strausberg attack 0.50 + Staaken defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Staaken scores more
60%
level
21%
Strausberg scores more
20%

Staaken at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Staaken will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord: Staaken 2–0 Strausberg

Staaken beat Strausberg 2-0 in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on October 31, 2020.

The match was played at Sportpark Staaken in Berlin.