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Strausberg vs Hansa Rostock II — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Strausberg
Strausberg
CANC
13:00
Hansa Rostock II
Hansa Rostock II
3/14/2021Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 23Energie Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Strausberg40%
×Draw20%
Hansa Rostock II40%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Strausberg
2.11
Hansa Rostock II
2.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 66 away

creates per match

Strausberg
2.60
Hansa Rostock II
2.39

allows per match

Strausberg
1.80
Hansa Rostock II
1.62

finishing

Strausberg+0.00on par
Hansa Rostock II+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Strausberg ↓

Hansa Rostock II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Strausberg or draw
60%
Strausberg or Hansa Rostock II
80%
Draw or Hansa Rostock II
60%

Winning margin

Strausberg wins by 2+
22%
Hansa Rostock II wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Strausberg 1+ goals
88%
Strausberg 2+ goals
62%
Strausberg 3+ goals
35%
Hansa Rostock II 1+ goals
88%
Hansa Rostock II 2+ goals
62%
Hansa Rostock II 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Strausberg (draw refunded)
50%
Hansa Rostock II (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Strausberg at home — creates 2.60, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Hansa Rostock II away — creates 2.39, concedes 1.62 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Strausberg attack 2.60 + Hansa Rostock II defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 2.11

Hansa Rostock II attack 2.39 + Strausberg defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Strausberg scores more
40%
level
20%
Hansa Rostock II scores more
40%

Strausberg at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Strausberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Strausberg vs Hansa Rostock II — Match Preview

Strausberg face Hansa Rostock II on March 14, 2021 in this Oberliga - Nordost-Nord fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Strausberg host Hansa Rostock II at Energie Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.