Hansa Rostock II 2–1 Strausberg: Result & Stats

Hansa Rostock II

FT

2 – 1

Strausberg

9/27/2020

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 6Volksstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Hansa Rostock II73%

×Draw16%

Strausberg10%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hansa Rostock IIExpected goals in this matchStrausberg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.50

0.83

Hansa Rostock II

2.50

Strausberg

0.83

Hansa Rostock II creates 201% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 4 away

2.76

creates per match

0.50

1.16

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

Hansa Rostock II

2.76

Strausberg

0.50

allows per match

Hansa Rostock II

1.16

Strausberg

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hansa Rostock II+0.00on par

Strausberg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hansa Rostock II ↓

Strausberg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Hansa Rostock II or draw

90%

Hansa Rostock II or Strausberg

84%

Draw or Strausberg

27%

Winning margin

Hansa Rostock II wins by 2+

51%

Strausberg wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Hansa Rostock II 1+ goals

92%

Hansa Rostock II 2+ goals

71%

Hansa Rostock II 3+ goals

45%

Strausberg 1+ goals

56%

Strausberg 2+ goals

20%

Strausberg 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Hansa Rostock II (draw refunded)

87%

Strausberg (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hansa Rostock II at home — creates 2.76, concedes 1.16 · 67 matches

Strausberg away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hansa Rostock II attack 2.76 + Strausberg defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.50

Strausberg attack 0.50 + Hansa Rostock II defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Hansa Rostock II scores more

73%

level

16%

Strausberg scores more

10%

Hansa Rostock II at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Hansa Rostock II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff