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Strasbourg W vs Paris Saint Germain W — Feminine Division 1 2018

Strasbourg W
Strasbourg W
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Paris Saint Germain W
Paris Saint Germain W
L. Joseph 90+3'
L. Hannequin 63' (OG)
R. Leuchter 45'
2/1/2025Feminine Division 1Feminine Division 1 · Round 14Stade de la Meinau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Strasbourg W17%
×Draw19%
Paris Saint Germain W63%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Strasbourg W
1.08
Paris Saint Germain W
2.25

Paris Saint Germain W creates 108% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 88 away

creates per match

Strasbourg W
1.33
Paris Saint Germain W
2.61

allows per match

Strasbourg W
1.90
Paris Saint Germain W
0.84

finishing

Strasbourg W+0.00on par
Paris Saint Germain W+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Strasbourg W ↓

Paris Saint Germain W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–29%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Strasbourg W or draw
37%
Strasbourg W or Paris Saint Germain W
81%
Draw or Paris Saint Germain W
83%

Winning margin

Strasbourg W wins by 2+
6%
Paris Saint Germain W wins by 2+
41%

Team goals

Strasbourg W 1+ goals
66%
Strasbourg W 2+ goals
29%
Strasbourg W 3+ goals
10%
Paris Saint Germain W 1+ goals
89%
Paris Saint Germain W 2+ goals
65%
Paris Saint Germain W 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Strasbourg W (draw refunded)
21%
Paris Saint Germain W (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Strasbourg W at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.90 · 21 matches

Paris Saint Germain W away — creates 2.61, concedes 0.84 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Strasbourg W attack 1.33 + Paris Saint Germain W defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.08

Paris Saint Germain W attack 2.61 + Strasbourg W defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Strasbourg W scores more
17%
level
19%
Paris Saint Germain W scores more
63%

Paris Saint Germain W at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Paris Saint Germain W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6
J. EcheginiParis Saint Germain WParis Saint Germain W · M
7.9

Match Events

14'
Naolia Traoré
44'
Paulina Dudek
45'
R. Leuchter↳ J. Echegini
46'
F. Brennskag-Dorsin← N. Traoré
53'
Elise Bonet
63'
L. HannequinOwn goal
65'
E. Jézéquel← M. Babou
70'
G. Mbock← J. Echegini
70'
T. Samoura← P. Dudek
72'
K. Chapelle← L. Azzaro
72'
F. Hoarau← É. Bonet
76'
Romee Leuchter
78'
O. Hurtré← T. Elimbi Gilbert
81'
L. Fazer← K. Albert
87'
E. Loving← A. Béché
87'
E. Evels← L. Hannequin
90+3'
L. Joseph↳ E. Evels

Possession

34%Strasbourg

Shots

3Strasbourg

Pass accuracy

44%Strasbourg

Statistics

StrasbourgParis
Overview
34%Possession66%
3Total Shots9
0Corners6
16Fouls11
Shots
3Total Shots9
1On Target3
1Off Target6
1Blocked0
1Inside Box7
2Outside Box2
Passing
34%Possession66%
252Total Passes474
162Accurate Passes379
64%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
2Saves0
Discipline
16Fouls11
1Yellow Cards3
2Offsides1

Feminine Division 1: Strasbourg W 1–2 Paris Saint Germain W

Paris Saint Germain W beat Strasbourg W 2-1 in Feminine Division 1 on February 1, 2025.

Goals: R. Leuchter (45'), L. Hannequin (63' o.g.), L. Joseph (90+3').

Paris Saint Germain W controlled possession (66%) and registered 9 shots to 3.

The match was played at Stade de la Meinau in Strasbourg.