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Paris Saint Germain W vs Strasbourg W — Feminine Division 1 2018

Paris Saint Germain W
Paris Saint Germain W
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Strasbourg W
Strasbourg W
F. Brennskag-Dorsin 60'
M. Katoto 48', 38', 8'
11/9/2024Feminine Division 1Feminine Division 1 · Round 7Training Center Paris Saint Germain Terrain 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Paris Saint Germain W78%
×Draw15%
Strasbourg W7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paris Saint Germain W
2.42
Strasbourg W
0.59

Paris Saint Germain W creates 310% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 22 away

creates per match

Paris Saint Germain W
3.15
Strasbourg W
0.77

allows per match

Paris Saint Germain W
0.41
Strasbourg W
1.68

finishing

Paris Saint Germain W+0.00on par
Strasbourg W+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paris Saint Germain W ↓

Strasbourg W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–17%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Paris Saint Germain W or draw
93%
Paris Saint Germain W or Strasbourg W
85%
Draw or Strasbourg W
22%

Winning margin

Paris Saint Germain W wins by 2+
55%
Strasbourg W wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Paris Saint Germain W 1+ goals
91%
Paris Saint Germain W 2+ goals
69%
Paris Saint Germain W 3+ goals
43%
Strasbourg W 1+ goals
45%
Strasbourg W 2+ goals
12%
Strasbourg W 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Paris Saint Germain W (draw refunded)
91%
Strasbourg W (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paris Saint Germain W at home — creates 3.15, concedes 0.41 · 86 matches

Strasbourg W away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.68 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paris Saint Germain W attack 3.15 + Strasbourg W defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 2.42

Strasbourg W attack 0.77 + Paris Saint Germain W defence 0.41 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Paris Saint Germain W scores more
78%
level
15%
Strasbourg W scores more
7%

Paris Saint Germain W at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Paris Saint Germain W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
M. KatotoParis Saint Germain WParis Saint Germain W · F
9.7

Match Events

8'
M. Katoto
38'
M. Katoto↳ G. Geyoro
46'
L. Fazer← T. Samoura
48'
M. Katoto↳ K. Albert
55'
O. Hurtré← E. Gaetino
55'
F. Brennskag-Dorsin← G. Geyoro
58'
M. Hoeltzel← M. Duporge
59'
L. Hannequin← S. Enge
59'
M. Babou← F. Hoarau
60'
F. Brennskag-Dorsin↳ J. Groenen
70'
E. Loving← K. Chapelle
71'
R. Leuchter← N. Traoré
80'
A. Diarra← M. Katoto
81'
C. Mairot← E. Jézéquel

Possession

60%Paris

Shots

19Paris

Pass accuracy

52%Paris

Statistics

ParisStrasbourg
Overview
60%Possession40%
19Total Shots2
10Corners2
5Fouls7
Shots
19Total Shots2
7On Target0
7Off Target2
5Blocked0
11Inside Box0
8Outside Box2
Passing
60%Possession40%
606Total Passes417
536Accurate Passes340
88%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
0Saves3
Discipline
5Fouls7
0Offsides2

Feminine Division 1: Paris Saint Germain W 4–0 Strasbourg W

Paris Saint Germain W beat Strasbourg W 4-0 in Feminine Division 1 on November 9, 2024.

Goals: M. Katoto (8', 38', 48'), F. Brennskag-Dorsin (60').

Paris Saint Germain W controlled possession (60%) and registered 19 shots to 2.

The match was played at Training Center Paris Saint Germain Terrain 5 in Poissy.