Strasbourg W 1–2 Nantes W: Result & Stats

Strasbourg W

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Nantes W

L. Azzaro 18'

R. Éloissant 85'

L. Fleury 13'

12/11/2024

Feminine Division 1 · Round 9Colmar Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Strasbourg W39%

×Draw23%

Nantes W38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Strasbourg WExpected goals in this matchNantes W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.67

Strasbourg W

1.69

Nantes W

1.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 23 away

1.33

creates per match

1.43

1.90

allows per match

2.04

creates per match

Strasbourg W

1.33

Nantes W

1.43

allows per match

Strasbourg W

1.90

Nantes W

2.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Strasbourg W+0.00on par

Nantes W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Strasbourg W ↓

Nantes W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Strasbourg W or draw

62%

Strasbourg W or Nantes W

77%

Draw or Nantes W

61%

Winning margin

Strasbourg W wins by 2+

20%

Nantes W wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Strasbourg W 1+ goals

82%

Strasbourg W 2+ goals

50%

Strasbourg W 3+ goals

24%

Nantes W 1+ goals

81%

Nantes W 2+ goals

50%

Nantes W 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Strasbourg W (draw refunded)

51%

Nantes W (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Strasbourg W at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.90 · 21 matches

Nantes W away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.04 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Strasbourg W attack 1.33 + Nantes W defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.69

Nantes W attack 1.43 + Strasbourg W defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Strasbourg W scores more

39%

level

23%

Nantes W scores more

38%

Strasbourg W at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Strasbourg W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

L. Azzaro

Strasbourg W · F

7.7

Match Events

13'

L. Fleury↳ K. Gago

18'

L. Azzaro↳ M. Hoeltzel

25'

Manon Uffren

45'

Sierra Enge

46'

L. Storti← A. Ould Braham

62'

E. Loving← L. Hannequin

62'

M. Duporge← C. Neller

63'

T. Eninger← C. Robillard

64'

Morgane Duporge

64'

R. Éloissant← D. Marcano

76'

Nelly Rodrigues← J. Rabanne

80'

K. Chapelle← L. Azzaro

80'

M. Babou← F. Hoarau

82'

J. Mossard← L. Fleury

85'

R. Éloissant↳ T. Eninger

90+1'

F. Baldé← M. Hoeltzel

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StrasbourgNantes

Overview

56%Possession44%

8Total Shots11

1Corners6

12Fouls8

Shots

8Total Shots11

3On Target7

4Off Target4

1Blocked0

6Inside Box7

2Outside Box4

Passing

56%Possession44%

482Total Passes374

331Accurate Passes242

69%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls8

2Yellow Cards1

0Offsides2