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Strasbourg W vs Lyon W — Feminine Division 1 2018

Strasbourg W
Strasbourg W
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Lyon W
Lyon W
T. Chawinga 90'
M. Dumornay 64'
W. Renard 62'
E. Le Sommer 6'
3/1/2025Feminine Division 1Feminine Division 1 · Round 16Stade de la Meinau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Strasbourg W10%
×Draw15%
Lyon W75%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Strasbourg W
0.91
Lyon W
2.72

Lyon W creates 199% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 85 away

creates per match

Strasbourg W
1.33
Lyon W
3.55

allows per match

Strasbourg W
1.90
Lyon W
0.49

finishing

Strasbourg W+0.00on par
Lyon W+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Strasbourg W ↓

Lyon W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–210%
0–39%
0–46%
1
1–02%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–24%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Strasbourg W or draw
25%
Strasbourg W or Lyon W
85%
Draw or Lyon W
90%

Winning margin

Strasbourg W wins by 2+
3%
Lyon W wins by 2+
54%

Team goals

Strasbourg W 1+ goals
60%
Strasbourg W 2+ goals
23%
Strasbourg W 3+ goals
6%
Lyon W 1+ goals
93%
Lyon W 2+ goals
75%
Lyon W 3+ goals
50%

Draw no bet

Strasbourg W (draw refunded)
12%
Lyon W (draw refunded)
88%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Strasbourg W at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.90 · 21 matches

Lyon W away — creates 3.55, concedes 0.49 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Strasbourg W attack 1.33 + Lyon W defence 0.49 → ÷2 → 0.91

Lyon W attack 3.55 + Strasbourg W defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 2.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Strasbourg W scores more
10%
level
15%
Lyon W scores more
75%

Lyon W at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Lyon W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
E. Le SommerLyon WLyon W · M
8.5

Match Events

6'
E. Le Sommer↳ A. Majri
52'
Dzsenifer Marozsán
62'
W. Renard
64'
M. Dumornay↳ E. Le Sommer
67'
M. Babou← E. Jézéquel
67'
T. Chawinga← E. Le Sommer
67'
A. Sombath← W. Renard
67'
S. Bacha← S. Svava
68'
K. Chapelle← L. Hannequin
71'
A. Hegerberg← D. Egurrola
78'
A. Chaney← A. Tchakounté
78'
E. Loving← M. Hoeltzel
86'
E. Evels← Maeline Mendy
86'
Tarciane← V. Gilles
90'
T. Chawinga↳ V. Bècho

Possession

37%Strasbourg

Shots

8Strasbourg

Pass accuracy

47%Strasbourg

Statistics

StrasbourgLyon
Overview
37%Possession63%
8Total Shots28
3Corners8
5Fouls8
Shots
8Total Shots28
2On Target11
5Off Target14
1Blocked3
3Inside Box21
5Outside Box7
Passing
37%Possession63%
341Total Passes581
269Accurate Passes513
79%Pass Accuracy88%
Goalkeeping
4Saves1
Discipline
5Fouls8
0Yellow Cards1
0Offsides2

Match Recap: Strasbourg W vs Lyon W

Lyon W beat Strasbourg W 4-0 in Feminine Division 1 on March 1, 2025.

Goals: E. Le Sommer (6'), W. Renard (62'), M. Dumornay (64'), T. Chawinga (90').

Lyon W controlled possession (63%) and registered 28 shots to 8.

The match was played at Stade de la Meinau in Strasbourg.