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Lyon W vs Strasbourg W — Feminine Division 1 2018

Lyon W
Lyon W
FT
6 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Strasbourg W
Strasbourg W
L. Horan 90+3', 38'
M. Dumornay 58'
T. Chawinga 52'
K. Diani 45'
D. van de Donk 17'
9/27/2024Feminine Division 1Feminine Division 1 · Round 2Terrain d'honneur Gérard Houllier

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Lyon W84%
×Draw11%
Strasbourg W4%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lyon W
2.85
Strasbourg W
0.52

Lyon W creates 448% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 22 away

creates per match

Lyon W
4.02
Strasbourg W
0.77

allows per match

Lyon W
0.26
Strasbourg W
1.68

finishing

Lyon W+0.00on par
Strasbourg W+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lyon W ↓

Strasbourg W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–12%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–15%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–014%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–010%
4–15%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Lyon W or draw
96%
Lyon W or Strasbourg W
89%
Draw or Strasbourg W
16%

Winning margin

Lyon W wins by 2+
65%
Strasbourg W wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Lyon W 1+ goals
94%
Lyon W 2+ goals
77%
Lyon W 3+ goals
53%
Strasbourg W 1+ goals
41%
Strasbourg W 2+ goals
10%
Strasbourg W 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Lyon W (draw refunded)
95%
Strasbourg W (draw refunded)
5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lyon W at home — creates 4.02, concedes 0.26 · 93 matches

Strasbourg W away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.68 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lyon W attack 4.02 + Strasbourg W defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 2.85

Strasbourg W attack 0.77 + Lyon W defence 0.26 → ÷2 → 0.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Lyon W scores more
84%
level
11%
Strasbourg W scores more
4%

Lyon W at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Lyon W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26
L. HoranLyon WLyon W · M
10.0

Match Events

17'
D. van de Donk
38'
L. Horan↳ E. Carpenter
45'
K. Diani↳ D. van de Donk
46'
K. Chapelle← E. Loving
52'
T. Chawinga↳ K. Diani
58'
M. Dumornay↳ L. Horan
62'
S. Däbritz← D. Marozsán
63'
W. Renard← V. Gilles
63'
V. Bècho← K. Diani
63'
C. Neller← M. Duporge
63'
P. Dechilly← F. Hoarau
63'
Pilar Khoury← L. Hannequin
72'
A. Majri← D. van de Donk
72'
E. Le Sommer← M. Dumornay
73'
Chloe Neller
74'
É. Bonet← L. Azzaro
90+3'
L. Horan

Possession

67%Lyon

Shots

24Lyon

Pass accuracy

55%Lyon

Statistics

LyonStrasbourg
Overview
67%Possession33%
24Total Shots4
11Corners2
5Fouls4
Shots
24Total Shots4
14On Target1
5Off Target2
5Blocked1
19Inside Box3
5Outside Box1
Passing
67%Possession33%
660Total Passes322
590Accurate Passes231
89%Pass Accuracy72%
Goalkeeping
1Saves7
Discipline
5Fouls4
0Yellow Cards1
2Offsides1

Match Recap: Lyon W vs Strasbourg W

Lyon W beat Strasbourg W 6-0 in Feminine Division 1 on September 27, 2024.

Goals: D. van de Donk (17'), L. Horan (38', 90+3'), K. Diani (45'), T. Chawinga (52'), M. Dumornay (58').

Lyon W controlled possession (67%) and registered 24 shots to 4.

The match was played at Terrain d'honneur Gérard Houllier in Décines-Charpieu.