Strasbourg W 6–0 Guingamp W: Result & Stats

Strasbourg W

FT

6 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Guingamp W

3/29/2025

Feminine Division 1 · Round 19Stade de la Meinau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Strasbourg W48%

×Draw23%

Guingamp W29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Strasbourg WExpected goals in this matchGuingamp W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.33

Strasbourg W

1.79

Guingamp W

1.33

Strasbourg W creates 35% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 73 away

1.33

creates per match

0.77

1.90

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

Strasbourg W

1.33

Guingamp W

0.77

allows per match

Strasbourg W

1.90

Guingamp W

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Strasbourg W+0.00on par

Guingamp W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Strasbourg W ↓

Guingamp W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Strasbourg W or draw

71%

Strasbourg W or Guingamp W

77%

Draw or Guingamp W

52%

Winning margin

Strasbourg W wins by 2+

26%

Guingamp W wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Strasbourg W 1+ goals

83%

Strasbourg W 2+ goals

53%

Strasbourg W 3+ goals

26%

Guingamp W 1+ goals

74%

Guingamp W 2+ goals

38%

Guingamp W 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Strasbourg W (draw refunded)

63%

Guingamp W (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Strasbourg W at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.90 · 21 matches

Guingamp W away — creates 0.77, concedes 2.25 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Strasbourg W attack 1.33 + Guingamp W defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.79

Guingamp W attack 0.77 + Strasbourg W defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Strasbourg W scores more

48%

level

23%

Guingamp W scores more

29%

Strasbourg W at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Strasbourg W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff