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Guingamp W vs Strasbourg W — Feminine Division 1 2018

Guingamp W
Guingamp W
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Strasbourg W
Strasbourg W
L. Peneau 90+6' (pen)
A. Ollivier 66'
S. Bhandari 58'
K. Chapelle 65'
L. Azzaro 63' (pen)
10/19/2024Feminine Division 1Feminine Division 1 · Round 5Stade Centre Formation EAG 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Guingamp W40%
×Draw25%
Strasbourg W35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guingamp W
1.51
Strasbourg W
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 76 home / 22 away

creates per match

Guingamp W
1.34
Strasbourg W
0.77

allows per match

Guingamp W
2.03
Strasbourg W
1.68

finishing

Guingamp W+0.00on par
Strasbourg W+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guingamp W ↓

Strasbourg W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Guingamp W or draw
65%
Guingamp W or Strasbourg W
75%
Draw or Strasbourg W
60%

Winning margin

Guingamp W wins by 2+
19%
Strasbourg W wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Guingamp W 1+ goals
78%
Guingamp W 2+ goals
44%
Guingamp W 3+ goals
19%
Strasbourg W 1+ goals
75%
Strasbourg W 2+ goals
41%
Strasbourg W 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Guingamp W (draw refunded)
53%
Strasbourg W (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guingamp W at home — creates 1.34, concedes 2.03 · 76 matches

Strasbourg W away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.68 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guingamp W attack 1.34 + Strasbourg W defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.51

Strasbourg W attack 0.77 + Guingamp W defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Guingamp W scores more
40%
level
25%
Strasbourg W scores more
35%

Guingamp W at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Guingamp W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25
A. OllivierGuingamp WGuingamp W · M
7.7

Match Events

26'
Grace Kazadi Ntambwe
40'
L. Peneau← S. Daoudi
45+4'
Maelle Seguin
57'
A. Donnary← M. Bigot
58'
S. Bhandari↳ L. Abdu
59'
L. Azzaro← Pilar Khoury
63'
L. AzzaroPenalty
65'
K. Chapelle↳ A. Tchakounté
66'
A. Ollivier
71'
E. Loving← K. Chapelle
71'
A. Béché← F. Hoarau
83'
M. Hoeltzel← M. Duporge
86'
I. Touriss← M. Seguin
90+4'
Elise Bonet
90+6'
L. PeneauPenalty

Possession

42%Guingamp

Shots

8Guingamp

Pass accuracy

46%Guingamp

Statistics

GuingampStrasbourg
Overview
42%Possession58%
8Total Shots14
4Corners3
12Fouls11
Shots
8Total Shots14
6On Target6
2Off Target6
0Blocked2
6Inside Box8
2Outside Box6
Passing
42%Possession58%
302Total Passes420
203Accurate Passes336
67%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
4Saves3
Discipline
12Fouls11
2Yellow Cards1
1Offsides6

Feminine Division 1: Guingamp W 3–2 Strasbourg W

Guingamp W beat Strasbourg W 3-2 in Feminine Division 1 on October 19, 2024.

Goals: S. Bhandari (58'), L. Azzaro (63' pen), K. Chapelle (65'), A. Ollivier (66'), L. Peneau (90+6' pen).

Strasbourg W controlled possession (58%) and registered 14 shots to 8.

The match was played at Stade Centre Formation EAG 1 in Pabu.