Strasbourg 4–0 FSV Mainz 05: Result & Stats

Strasbourg

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

FSV Mainz 05

E. Emegha 74'

J. Enciso 69'

A. Ouattara 35'

S. Nanasi 26'

4/16/2026

UEFA Europa Conference League · Quarter-finalsStade de la Meinau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Strasbourg58%

×Draw27%

FSV Mainz 0515%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StrasbourgExpected goals in this matchFSV Mainz 05

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

0.60

Strasbourg

1.45

FSV Mainz 05

0.60

Strasbourg creates 142% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

1.57

creates per match

0.50

0.71

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Strasbourg

1.57

FSV Mainz 05

0.50

allows per match

Strasbourg

0.71

FSV Mainz 05

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Strasbourg+0.00on par

FSV Mainz 05+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Strasbourg ↓

FSV Mainz 05 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–18%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Strasbourg or draw

85%

Strasbourg or FSV Mainz 05

73%

Draw or FSV Mainz 05

42%

Winning margin

Strasbourg wins by 2+

30%

FSV Mainz 05 wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Strasbourg 1+ goals

77%

Strasbourg 2+ goals

42%

Strasbourg 3+ goals

18%

FSV Mainz 05 1+ goals

45%

FSV Mainz 05 2+ goals

12%

FSV Mainz 05 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Strasbourg (draw refunded)

79%

FSV Mainz 05 (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Strasbourg at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

FSV Mainz 05 away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Strasbourg attack 1.57 + FSV Mainz 05 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.45

FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.50 + Strasbourg defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Strasbourg scores more

58%

level

27%

FSV Mainz 05 scores more

15%

Strasbourg at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Strasbourg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

J. Enciso

Strasbourg · F

9.3

Match Events

-5'

Robin Zentner

19'

Dominik Kohr

26'

S. Nanasi

35'

A. Ouattara↳ J. Enciso

36'

45'

46'

49'

58'

69'

72'

72'

74'

78'

L. Hogsberg← B. Chilwell

79'

G. Yassine← A. Ouattara

82'

W. Boving← D. Kohr

82'

N. Veratschnig← P. Mwene

88'

M. Oyedele← J. Enciso

90+6'

90+4'

90+3'

90+3'

90+6'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StrasbourgFSV

Overview

60%Possession40%

10Total Shots7

2.89Expected Goals (xG)0.24

5Corners4

11Fouls12

Shots

10Total Shots7

7On Target1

2Off Target3

1Blocked3

10Inside Box4

0Outside Box3

Passing

60%Possession40%

463Total Passes301

398Accurate Passes229

86%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

0.09Goals Prevented0.09

Discipline

11Fouls12

5Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

1Offsides1