FSV Mainz 05 2–0 Strasbourg: Result & Stats

FSV Mainz 05

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Strasbourg

S. Posch 19'

K. Sano 11'

4/9/2026

UEFA Europa Conference League · Quarter-finalsMewa Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

FSV Mainz 0555%

×Draw25%

Strasbourg20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FSV Mainz 05Expected goals in this matchStrasbourg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

0.88

FSV Mainz 05

1.65

Strasbourg

0.88

FSV Mainz 05 creates 88% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

2.17

creates per match

1.43

0.33

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

FSV Mainz 05

2.17

Strasbourg

1.43

allows per match

FSV Mainz 05

0.33

Strasbourg

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FSV Mainz 05+0.00on par

Strasbourg+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FSV Mainz 05 ↓

Strasbourg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

FSV Mainz 05 or draw

80%

FSV Mainz 05 or Strasbourg

75%

Draw or Strasbourg

45%

Winning margin

FSV Mainz 05 wins by 2+

30%

Strasbourg wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

FSV Mainz 05 1+ goals

81%

FSV Mainz 05 2+ goals

49%

FSV Mainz 05 3+ goals

23%

Strasbourg 1+ goals

59%

Strasbourg 2+ goals

22%

Strasbourg 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

FSV Mainz 05 (draw refunded)

74%

Strasbourg (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FSV Mainz 05 at home — creates 2.17, concedes 0.33 · 6 matches

Strasbourg away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FSV Mainz 05 attack 2.17 + Strasbourg defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.65

Strasbourg attack 1.43 + FSV Mainz 05 defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

FSV Mainz 05 scores more

55%

level

25%

Strasbourg scores more

20%

FSV Mainz 05 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "FSV Mainz 05 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

K. Sano

FSV Mainz 05 · M

8.6

Match Events

11'

K. Sano↳ S. Kawasaki

19'

S. Posch↳ P. Nebel

31'

Guéla Doué

64'

E. Emegha← G. Yassine

64'

D. Moreira← M. Oyedele

69'

A. Sieb← N. Weiper

69'

N. Veratschnig← P. Mwene

70'

W. Boving← S. Kawasaki

80'

K. Potulski← S. Widmer

85'

89'

90+5'

90+5'

90+5'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FSVStrasbourg

Overview

34%Possession66%

18Total Shots9

1.61Expected Goals (xG)1.00

8Corners4

16Fouls10

Shots

18Total Shots9

6On Target2

6Off Target5

6Blocked2

14Inside Box7

4Outside Box2

Passing

34%Possession66%

289Total Passes607

227Accurate Passes536

79%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

0.44Goals Prevented0.44

Discipline

16Fouls10

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides3