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Stranraer vs Stenhousemuir — League Two 2018

Stranraer
Stranraer
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Stenhousemuir
Stenhousemuir
11/18/2023League TwoLeague Two · Round 13Stair Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Stranraer39%
×Draw27%
Stenhousemuir35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stranraer
1.31
Stenhousemuir
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 102 home / 78 away

creates per match

Stranraer
1.29
Stenhousemuir
1.28

allows per match

Stranraer
1.19
Stenhousemuir
1.33

finishing

Stranraer+0.00on par
Stenhousemuir+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stranraer ↓

Stenhousemuir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Stranraer or draw
65%
Stranraer or Stenhousemuir
73%
Draw or Stenhousemuir
61%

Winning margin

Stranraer wins by 2+
17%
Stenhousemuir wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Stranraer 1+ goals
73%
Stranraer 2+ goals
38%
Stranraer 3+ goals
14%
Stenhousemuir 1+ goals
71%
Stenhousemuir 2+ goals
35%
Stenhousemuir 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Stranraer (draw refunded)
53%
Stenhousemuir (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stranraer at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.19 · 102 matches

Stenhousemuir away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.33 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stranraer attack 1.29 + Stenhousemuir defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.31

Stenhousemuir attack 1.28 + Stranraer defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Stranraer scores more
39%
level
27%
Stenhousemuir scores more
35%

Stranraer at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Stranraer will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Stranraer 0–3 Stenhousemuir

Stenhousemuir beat Stranraer 3-0 in League Two on November 18, 2023.

The match was played at Stair Park in Stranraer.