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Stenhousemuir vs Stranraer — League Two 2018

Stenhousemuir
Stenhousemuir
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Stranraer
Stranraer
9/16/2023League TwoLeague Two · Round 6Ochilview Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Stenhousemuir41%
×Draw26%
Stranraer33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stenhousemuir
1.43
Stranraer
1.26

Stenhousemuir creates 13% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 103 away

creates per match

Stenhousemuir
1.31
Stranraer
1.14

allows per match

Stenhousemuir
1.39
Stranraer
1.54

finishing

Stenhousemuir+0.00on par
Stranraer+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stenhousemuir ↓

Stranraer →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Stenhousemuir or draw
67%
Stenhousemuir or Stranraer
74%
Draw or Stranraer
59%

Winning margin

Stenhousemuir wins by 2+
19%
Stranraer wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Stenhousemuir 1+ goals
76%
Stenhousemuir 2+ goals
42%
Stenhousemuir 3+ goals
17%
Stranraer 1+ goals
72%
Stranraer 2+ goals
36%
Stranraer 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Stenhousemuir (draw refunded)
55%
Stranraer (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stenhousemuir at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.39 · 80 matches

Stranraer away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.54 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stenhousemuir attack 1.31 + Stranraer defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.43

Stranraer attack 1.14 + Stenhousemuir defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Stenhousemuir scores more
41%
level
26%
Stranraer scores more
33%

Stenhousemuir at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Stenhousemuir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stenhousemuir vs Stranraer

Stenhousemuir beat Stranraer 5-0 in League Two on September 16, 2023.

The match was played at Ochilview Park in Stenhousemuir.