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Stranraer vs Hamilton Academical — League Cup 2018

Stranraer
Stranraer
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Hamilton Academical
Hamilton Academical
11/11/2020League CupLeague Cup · Group Stage - 7Stair Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Stranraer26%
×Draw22%
Hamilton Academical52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stranraer
1.35
Hamilton Academical
1.97

Hamilton Academical creates 46% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 15 away

creates per match

Stranraer
1.64
Hamilton Academical
1.87

allows per match

Stranraer
2.07
Hamilton Academical
1.07

finishing

Stranraer+0.00on par
Hamilton Academical+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stranraer ↓

Hamilton Academical →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Stranraer or draw
48%
Stranraer or Hamilton Academical
78%
Draw or Hamilton Academical
74%

Winning margin

Stranraer wins by 2+
11%
Hamilton Academical wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Stranraer 1+ goals
74%
Stranraer 2+ goals
39%
Stranraer 3+ goals
15%
Hamilton Academical 1+ goals
86%
Hamilton Academical 2+ goals
58%
Hamilton Academical 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Stranraer (draw refunded)
34%
Hamilton Academical (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stranraer at home — creates 1.64, concedes 2.07 · 14 matches

Hamilton Academical away — creates 1.87, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stranraer attack 1.64 + Hamilton Academical defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.35

Hamilton Academical attack 1.87 + Stranraer defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Stranraer scores more
26%
level
22%
Hamilton Academical scores more
52%

Hamilton Academical at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Hamilton Academical will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stranraer vs Hamilton Academical

Stranraer beat Hamilton Academical 2-1 in League Cup on November 11, 2020.

The match was played at Stair Park in Stranraer.