Hamilton Academical 5–2 Stranraer: Result & Stats

Hamilton Academical

FT

5 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Stranraer

L. Smith 78'

M. Shiels 55', 53'

A. Ryan 51'

A. Winter 49'

P. Woods 88' (pen), 68' (pen)

7/12/2022

League Cup · Group Stage - 2Fountain of Youth Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Hamilton Academical58%

×Draw21%

Stranraer20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hamilton AcademicalExpected goals in this matchStranraer

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

1.10

Hamilton Academical

2.02

Stranraer

1.10

Hamilton Academical creates 84% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 11 away

1.50

creates per match

0.82

1.38

allows per match

2.55

creates per match

Hamilton Academical

1.50

Stranraer

0.82

allows per match

Hamilton Academical

1.38

Stranraer

2.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hamilton Academical+0.00on par

Stranraer+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hamilton Academical ↓

Stranraer →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Hamilton Academical or draw

80%

Hamilton Academical or Stranraer

79%

Draw or Stranraer

42%

Winning margin

Hamilton Academical wins by 2+

35%

Stranraer wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Hamilton Academical 1+ goals

87%

Hamilton Academical 2+ goals

60%

Hamilton Academical 3+ goals

33%

Stranraer 1+ goals

67%

Stranraer 2+ goals

30%

Stranraer 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Hamilton Academical (draw refunded)

74%

Stranraer (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hamilton Academical at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

Stranraer away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hamilton Academical attack 1.50 + Stranraer defence 2.55 → ÷2 → 2.02

Stranraer attack 0.82 + Hamilton Academical defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Hamilton Academical scores more

58%

level

21%

Stranraer scores more

20%

Hamilton Academical at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Hamilton Academical will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

47'

S. McLean

49'

A. Winter↳ R. Mimnaugh

51'

53'

54'

55'

64'

Josh Walker← A. Brady

66'

R. One← A. Ryan

68'

P. WoodsPenalty

78'

79'

86'

86'

88'

P. WoodsPenalty

90'

J. Walker

Hamilton

Stranraer

1

2

20

4

21

▼

Dunn

3

Ellis

8

Gallagher

6

▼

Brady

11

⚽2

18

7

1

2

4

24

A

Lawson

3

⚽2

▼

Shiels

25

▼

Owens

11

⚽A

▼

Smith

20

Ngandu

18

A

Mimnaugh

9

⚽

▼

Ryan

19

⚽

Winter

Manager: J. Rankin

66'▲R. One←▼A. Ryan

79'▲E. Brown←▼L. Smith

86'▲C. Newbury←▼F. Owens

86'▲C. McGinn←▼M. Shiels

Hamilton Academical substitutes

41One22Brown42Newbury37McGinn31Smith7Spence8Martin

Manager: J. Hamill

54'▲D. Forrest←▼S. Dunn

64'▲Josh Walker←▼A. Brady

Stranraer substitutes

16Forrest10Walker24Duffy14Hawkshaw13O'Connor

League Cup: Hamilton Academical 5–2 Stranraer

Hamilton Academical beat Stranraer 5-2 in League Cup on July 12, 2022.

Goals: A. Winter (49'), A. Ryan (51'), M. Shiels (53', 55'), P. Woods (68' pen, 88' pen), L. Smith (78').

The match was played at Fountain of Youth Stadium in Hamilton.

Hamilton Academical vs Stranraer — League Cup 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

League Cup: Hamilton Academical 5–2 Stranraer