Stranraer 0–3 Falkirk: Result & Stats | League #183

Stranraer

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Falkirk

M. Gomis 81'

C. Telfer 67'

D. McMillan 24'

9/21/2019

League #183 · Round 7Stair Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Stranraer12%

×Draw19%

Falkirk69%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StranraerExpected goals in this matchFalkirk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.75

2.13

Stranraer

0.75

Falkirk

2.13

Falkirk creates 184% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

1.00

creates per match

3.25

1.00

allows per match

0.50

creates per match

Stranraer

1.00

Falkirk

3.25

allows per match

Stranraer

1.00

Falkirk

0.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stranraer+0.00on par

Falkirk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stranraer ↓

Falkirk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–112%

0–213%

0–39%

0–45%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–13%

2–24%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Stranraer or draw

31%

Stranraer or Falkirk

81%

Draw or Falkirk

88%

Winning margin

Stranraer wins by 2+

3%

Falkirk wins by 2+

44%

Team goals

Stranraer 1+ goals

53%

Stranraer 2+ goals

17%

Stranraer 3+ goals

4%

Falkirk 1+ goals

88%

Falkirk 2+ goals

63%

Falkirk 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Stranraer (draw refunded)

15%

Falkirk (draw refunded)

85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stranraer at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Falkirk away — creates 3.25, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stranraer attack 1.00 + Falkirk defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.75

Falkirk attack 3.25 + Stranraer defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Stranraer scores more

12%

level

19%

Falkirk scores more

69%

Falkirk at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Falkirk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

D. McMillan↳ L. Longridge

67'

C. Telfer↳ D. McMillan

70'

D. Dangana← C. Elliott

70'

R. Jones← M. Stewart

72'

I. McShane← C. Telfer

74'

C. Pignatiello← L. Murphy

80'

D. Johnstone← D. McManus

80'

C. Sammon← D. McMillan

81'

M. Gomis↳ D. Johnstone

Stranraer

Falkirk

1

3

2

5

4

6

⚽

Gomis

21

⚽

▼

Telfer

7

Connolly

29

⚽A

▼

McMillan

14

A

Longridge

9

▼

1

22

2

3

77

23

6

10

▼

Murphy

7

Hilton

9

▼

Stewart

14

▼

Elliott

Manager: S. Farrell

70'▲D. Dangana←▼C. Elliott

70'▲R. Jones←▼M. Stewart

74'▲C. Pignatiello←▼L. Murphy

Stranraer substitutes

18Dangana15Jones12Pignatiello21Burgess11Smith

Manager: R. McKinnon

72'▲I. McShane←▼C. Telfer

80'▲D. Johnstone←▼D. McManus

80'▲C. Sammon←▼D. McMillan

Falkirk substitutes

8McShane10Johnstone18Sammon15Toshney11MacLean31Mutch16Miller