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Falkirk vs Stranraer — League #183 2026

Falkirk
Falkirk
CANC
00:00
Stranraer
Stranraer
3/21/2020League #183League #183 · Round 30Falkirk Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Falkirk72%
×Draw19%
Stranraer9%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Falkirk
2.06
Stranraer
0.57

Falkirk creates 261% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

Falkirk
2.80
Stranraer
0.33

allows per match

Falkirk
0.80
Stranraer
1.33

finishing

Falkirk+0.00on par
Stranraer+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Falkirk ↓

Stranraer →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Falkirk or draw
91%
Falkirk or Stranraer
81%
Draw or Stranraer
28%

Winning margin

Falkirk wins by 2+
47%
Stranraer wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Falkirk 1+ goals
87%
Falkirk 2+ goals
61%
Falkirk 3+ goals
34%
Stranraer 1+ goals
43%
Stranraer 2+ goals
11%
Stranraer 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Falkirk (draw refunded)
89%
Stranraer (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Falkirk at home — creates 2.80, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Stranraer away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Falkirk attack 2.80 + Stranraer defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 2.06

Stranraer attack 0.33 + Falkirk defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Falkirk scores more
72%
level
19%
Stranraer scores more
9%

Falkirk at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Falkirk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Falkirk face Stranraer (League #183)

League #183 returns with Falkirk hosting Stranraer. Match starts March 21, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Falkirk host Stranraer at Falkirk Community Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.