Stranraer 0–2 East Fife: Result & Stats

Stranraer

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

East Fife

1/18/2025

League Two · Round 21Eco Gen Stadium at Stair Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Stranraer38%

×Draw27%

East Fife36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StranraerExpected goals in this matchEast Fife

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.25

Stranraer

1.29

East Fife

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 102 home / 54 away

1.29

creates per match

1.30

1.19

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Stranraer

1.29

East Fife

1.30

allows per match

Stranraer

1.19

East Fife

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stranraer+0.00on par

East Fife+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stranraer ↓

East Fife →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Stranraer or draw

64%

Stranraer or East Fife

73%

Draw or East Fife

62%

Winning margin

Stranraer wins by 2+

17%

East Fife wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Stranraer 1+ goals

72%

Stranraer 2+ goals

37%

Stranraer 3+ goals

14%

East Fife 1+ goals

71%

East Fife 2+ goals

36%

East Fife 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Stranraer (draw refunded)

51%

East Fife (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stranraer at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.19 · 102 matches

East Fife away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.28 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stranraer attack 1.29 + East Fife defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.29

East Fife attack 1.30 + Stranraer defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Stranraer scores more

38%

level

27%

East Fife scores more

36%

Stranraer at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Stranraer will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff