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East Fife vs Stranraer — League Two 2018

East Fife
East Fife
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Stranraer
Stranraer
3/23/2024League TwoLeague Two · Round 30MGM Timber Bayview Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

East Fife48%
×Draw24%
Stranraer27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

East Fife
1.65
Stranraer
1.17

East Fife creates 41% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 103 away

creates per match

East Fife
1.76
Stranraer
1.14

allows per match

East Fife
1.20
Stranraer
1.54

finishing

East Fife+0.00on par
Stranraer+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

East Fife ↓

Stranraer →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

East Fife or draw
73%
East Fife or Stranraer
76%
Draw or Stranraer
52%

Winning margin

East Fife wins by 2+
26%
Stranraer wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

East Fife 1+ goals
81%
East Fife 2+ goals
49%
East Fife 3+ goals
23%
Stranraer 1+ goals
69%
Stranraer 2+ goals
33%
Stranraer 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

East Fife (draw refunded)
64%
Stranraer (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

East Fife at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.20 · 54 matches

Stranraer away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.54 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

East Fife attack 1.76 + Stranraer defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.65

Stranraer attack 1.14 + East Fife defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

East Fife scores more
48%
level
24%
Stranraer scores more
27%

East Fife at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "East Fife will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: East Fife 2–1 Stranraer

East Fife beat Stranraer 2-1 in League Two on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at MGM Timber Bayview Stadium in Methil.