Stranraer 2–0 East Fife: Result & Stats

Stranraer

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

East Fife

J. Hilton 49'

M. Grant 13'

2/25/2023

League Two · Round 26Stair Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Stranraer37%

×Draw27%

East Fife36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StranraerExpected goals in this matchEast Fife

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.23

Stranraer

1.27

East Fife

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 102 home / 58 away

1.29

creates per match

1.28

1.19

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Stranraer

1.29

East Fife

1.28

allows per match

Stranraer

1.19

East Fife

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stranraer+0.00on par

East Fife+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stranraer ↓

East Fife →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Stranraer or draw

64%

Stranraer or East Fife

73%

Draw or East Fife

63%

Winning margin

Stranraer wins by 2+

16%

East Fife wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Stranraer 1+ goals

72%

Stranraer 2+ goals

36%

Stranraer 3+ goals

14%

East Fife 1+ goals

71%

East Fife 2+ goals

35%

East Fife 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Stranraer (draw refunded)

51%

East Fife (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stranraer at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.19 · 102 matches

East Fife away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.26 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stranraer attack 1.29 + East Fife defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.27

East Fife attack 1.28 + Stranraer defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Stranraer scores more

37%

level

27%

East Fife scores more

36%

Stranraer at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Stranraer will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

M. Grant↳ A. Brady

49'

J. Hilton↳ A. Brown

59'

S. Shepherd← A. Denholm

59'

C. McManus← K. Millar

62'

L. Newton

70'

B. Walls← J. Healy

78'

T. Steven← R. Schiavone

82'

85'

88'

90+4'

Stranraer

East

1

3

15

5

4

▼

Millar

11

▼

Healy

12

Newton

10

Trouten

7

▼

Schiavone

19

Ferguson

17

▼

31

2

20

22

5

8

6

A

Brady

7

⚽

▼

Hilton

12

Ngandu

23

⚽

Grant

17

A

▼

Brown

Manager: J. Hamill

85'▲J. Walker←▼A. Brown

88'▲D. Duffy←▼J. Hilton

Stranraer substitutes

10Walker24Duffy9Malcolm13O'Connor

Manager: G. McDonald

59'▲S. Shepherd←▼A. Denholm

59'▲C. McManus←▼K. Millar

70'▲B. Walls←▼J. Healy

78'▲T. Steven←▼R. Schiavone

East Fife substitutes

9Shepherd6McManus14Walls22Steven24Agnew18Omar21Beveridge16Mansouri2Murdoch