Stranraer 0–1 Annan Athletic: Result & Stats

Stranraer

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Annan Athletic

10/4/2025

League Two · Round 9Stair Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Stranraer40%

×Draw27%

Annan Athletic33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StranraerExpected goals in this matchAnnan Athletic

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.21

Stranraer

1.36

Annan Athletic

1.21

Stranraer creates 12% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 96 away

1.29

creates per match

1.24

1.19

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Stranraer

1.29

Annan Athletic

1.24

allows per match

Stranraer

1.19

Annan Athletic

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stranraer+0.00on par

Annan Athletic+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stranraer ↓

Annan Athletic →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Stranraer or draw

67%

Stranraer or Annan Athletic

73%

Draw or Annan Athletic

60%

Winning margin

Stranraer wins by 2+

19%

Annan Athletic wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Stranraer 1+ goals

74%

Stranraer 2+ goals

39%

Stranraer 3+ goals

16%

Annan Athletic 1+ goals

70%

Annan Athletic 2+ goals

34%

Annan Athletic 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Stranraer (draw refunded)

55%

Annan Athletic (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stranraer at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.19 · 102 matches

Annan Athletic away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.44 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stranraer attack 1.29 + Annan Athletic defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.36

Annan Athletic attack 1.24 + Stranraer defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Stranraer scores more

40%

level

27%

Annan Athletic scores more

33%

Stranraer at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Stranraer will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff