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Annan Athletic vs Stranraer — League Two 2018

Annan Athletic
Annan Athletic
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Stranraer
Stranraer
3/25/2023League TwoLeague Two · Round 30Galabank

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Annan Athletic47%
×Draw24%
Stranraer29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Annan Athletic
1.71
Stranraer
1.30

Annan Athletic creates 32% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 103 away

creates per match

Annan Athletic
1.87
Stranraer
1.14

allows per match

Annan Athletic
1.46
Stranraer
1.54

finishing

Annan Athletic+0.00on par
Stranraer+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Annan Athletic ↓

Stranraer →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Annan Athletic or draw
71%
Annan Athletic or Stranraer
76%
Draw or Stranraer
53%

Winning margin

Annan Athletic wins by 2+
25%
Stranraer wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Annan Athletic 1+ goals
82%
Annan Athletic 2+ goals
51%
Annan Athletic 3+ goals
24%
Stranraer 1+ goals
73%
Stranraer 2+ goals
37%
Stranraer 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Annan Athletic (draw refunded)
62%
Stranraer (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Annan Athletic at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.46 · 97 matches

Stranraer away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.54 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Annan Athletic attack 1.87 + Stranraer defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.71

Stranraer attack 1.14 + Annan Athletic defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Annan Athletic scores more
47%
level
24%
Stranraer scores more
29%

Annan Athletic at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Annan Athletic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Annan Athletic 0–0 Stranraer

Annan Athletic and Stranraer drew 0-0 in League Two on March 25, 2023.

The match was played at Galabank in Annan.