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Straelen vs Sonsbeck — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Straelen
Straelen
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Sonsbeck
Sonsbeck
11/18/2023Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 15Sportzentrum an der Römerstraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Straelen55%
×Draw23%
Sonsbeck22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Straelen
1.86
Sonsbeck
1.09

Straelen creates 71% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 71 away

creates per match

Straelen
1.80
Sonsbeck
1.28

allows per match

Straelen
0.90
Sonsbeck
1.93

finishing

Straelen+0.00on par
Sonsbeck+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Straelen ↓

Sonsbeck →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Straelen or draw
78%
Straelen or Sonsbeck
77%
Draw or Sonsbeck
45%

Winning margin

Straelen wins by 2+
32%
Sonsbeck wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Straelen 1+ goals
84%
Straelen 2+ goals
55%
Straelen 3+ goals
28%
Sonsbeck 1+ goals
66%
Sonsbeck 2+ goals
30%
Sonsbeck 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Straelen (draw refunded)
71%
Sonsbeck (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Straelen at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

Sonsbeck away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.93 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Straelen attack 1.80 + Sonsbeck defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.86

Sonsbeck attack 1.28 + Straelen defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Straelen scores more
55%
level
23%
Sonsbeck scores more
22%

Straelen at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Straelen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Straelen vs Sonsbeck

Straelen beat Sonsbeck 3-1 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on November 18, 2023.

The match was played at Sportzentrum an der Römerstraße in Straelen am Niederrhein.