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Sonsbeck vs Straelen — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Sonsbeck
Sonsbeck
CANC
13:00
Straelen
Straelen
5/12/2024Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 32Willy-Lemkens-Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Sonsbeck32%
×Draw23%
Straelen45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sonsbeck
1.50
Straelen
1.81

Straelen creates 21% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 8 away

creates per match

Sonsbeck
1.86
Straelen
2.13

allows per match

Sonsbeck
1.49
Straelen
1.13

finishing

Sonsbeck+0.00on par
Straelen+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sonsbeck ↓

Straelen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Sonsbeck or draw
55%
Sonsbeck or Straelen
77%
Draw or Straelen
68%

Winning margin

Sonsbeck wins by 2+
15%
Straelen wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Sonsbeck 1+ goals
78%
Sonsbeck 2+ goals
44%
Sonsbeck 3+ goals
19%
Straelen 1+ goals
84%
Straelen 2+ goals
54%
Straelen 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Sonsbeck (draw refunded)
42%
Straelen (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sonsbeck at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.49 · 70 matches

Straelen away — creates 2.13, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sonsbeck attack 1.86 + Straelen defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.50

Straelen attack 2.13 + Sonsbeck defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sonsbeck scores more
32%
level
23%
Straelen scores more
45%

Straelen at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Straelen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sonsbeck face Straelen (Oberliga - Niederrhein)

Oberliga - Niederrhein returns with Sonsbeck hosting Straelen. Match starts May 12, 2024. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Sonsbeck host Straelen at Willy-Lemkens-Sportpark.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.