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Straelen vs Meerbusch — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Straelen
Straelen
CANC
13:00
Meerbusch
Meerbusch
5/26/2024Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 33Sportzentrum an der Römerstraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Straelen52%
×Draw22%
Meerbusch25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Straelen
1.91
Meerbusch
1.26

Straelen creates 52% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 92 away

creates per match

Straelen
1.80
Meerbusch
1.61

allows per match

Straelen
0.90
Meerbusch
2.02

finishing

Straelen+0.00on par
Meerbusch+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Straelen ↓

Meerbusch →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Straelen or draw
75%
Straelen or Meerbusch
78%
Draw or Meerbusch
48%

Winning margin

Straelen wins by 2+
30%
Meerbusch wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Straelen 1+ goals
85%
Straelen 2+ goals
57%
Straelen 3+ goals
30%
Meerbusch 1+ goals
72%
Meerbusch 2+ goals
36%
Meerbusch 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Straelen (draw refunded)
68%
Meerbusch (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Straelen at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

Meerbusch away — creates 1.61, concedes 2.02 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Straelen attack 1.80 + Meerbusch defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.91

Meerbusch attack 1.61 + Straelen defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Straelen scores more
52%
level
22%
Meerbusch scores more
25%

Straelen at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Straelen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Straelen host Meerbusch

May 26, 2024: Straelen take on Meerbusch in Oberliga - Niederrhein. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Straelen host Meerbusch at Sportzentrum an der Römerstraße.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.