Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Meerbusch vs Straelen — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Meerbusch
Meerbusch
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 3
Straelen
Straelen
12/3/2023Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 16Sportplatz Lank

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Meerbusch28%
×Draw22%
Straelen50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Meerbusch
1.44
Straelen
2.00

Straelen creates 39% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 8 away

creates per match

Meerbusch
1.74
Straelen
2.13

allows per match

Meerbusch
1.88
Straelen
1.13

finishing

Meerbusch+0.00on par
Straelen+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meerbusch ↓

Straelen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Meerbusch or draw
50%
Meerbusch or Straelen
78%
Draw or Straelen
72%

Winning margin

Meerbusch wins by 2+
12%
Straelen wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Meerbusch 1+ goals
76%
Meerbusch 2+ goals
42%
Meerbusch 3+ goals
18%
Straelen 1+ goals
86%
Straelen 2+ goals
59%
Straelen 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Meerbusch (draw refunded)
36%
Straelen (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meerbusch at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.88 · 90 matches

Straelen away — creates 2.13, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meerbusch attack 1.74 + Straelen defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.44

Straelen attack 2.13 + Meerbusch defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Meerbusch scores more
28%
level
22%
Straelen scores more
50%

Straelen at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Straelen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Meerbusch vs Straelen

Straelen beat Meerbusch 3-1 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on December 3, 2023.

The match was played at Sportplatz Lank in Meerbusch.