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Strømsgodset II vs Gjelleråsen — 3. Division - Girone 6 2020

Strømsgodset II
Strømsgodset II
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Gjelleråsen
Gjelleråsen
D. Ahmadzay 90+1'
A. P. Thorsen 50'
E. Akvag 90+4'
S. Latkovic 62' (pen)
W. Khris 8'
6/27/20223. Division - Girone 63. Division - Girone 6 · Girone 6 - 12Marienlyst Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Strømsgodset II54%
×Draw18%
Gjelleråsen27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Strømsgodset II
2.81
Gjelleråsen
2.00

Strømsgodset II creates 41% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Strømsgodset II
4.23
Gjelleråsen
2.77

allows per match

Strømsgodset II
1.23
Gjelleråsen
1.38

finishing

Strømsgodset II+0.00on par
Gjelleråsen+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

81%Yes
  • Yes81
  • No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Strømsgodset II ↓

Gjelleråsen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–25%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
70%30%4.5
51%49%

Double chance

Strømsgodset II or draw
73%
Strømsgodset II or Gjelleråsen
82%
Draw or Gjelleråsen
46%

Winning margin

Strømsgodset II wins by 2+
35%
Gjelleråsen wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Strømsgodset II 1+ goals
94%
Strømsgodset II 2+ goals
76%
Strømsgodset II 3+ goals
52%
Gjelleråsen 1+ goals
86%
Gjelleråsen 2+ goals
59%
Gjelleråsen 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Strømsgodset II (draw refunded)
66%
Gjelleråsen (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
76%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Strømsgodset II at home — creates 4.23, concedes 1.23 · 13 matches

Gjelleråsen away — creates 2.77, concedes 1.38 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Strømsgodset II attack 4.23 + Gjelleråsen defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 2.81

Gjelleråsen attack 2.77 + Strømsgodset II defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Strømsgodset II scores more
54%
level
18%
Gjelleråsen scores more
27%

Strømsgodset II at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Strømsgodset II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
W. Khris
50'
A. P. Thorsen
62'
S. LatkovicPenalty
90+1'
D. Ahmadzay
90+4'
E. Akvag

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 6: Strømsgodset II 2–3 Gjelleråsen

Gjelleråsen beat Strømsgodset II 3-2 in 3. Division - Girone 6 on June 27, 2022.

Goals: W. Khris (8'), A. P. Thorsen (50'), S. Latkovic (62' pen), D. Ahmadzay (90+1'), E. Akvag (90+4').

The match was played at Marienlyst Stadion in Drammen.