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Gjelleråsen vs Strømsgodset II — 3. Division - Girone 6 2020

Gjelleråsen
Gjelleråsen
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Strømsgodset II
Strømsgodset II
Y. Vaage 76' (OG)
M. Hassan 60'
M. Farji 74'
A. Skjold 19'
A. P. Thorsen 15'
10/23/20223. Division - Girone 63. Division - Girone 6 · Girone 6 - 26Li kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Gjelleråsen44%
×Draw19%
Strømsgodset II36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gjelleråsen
2.42
Strømsgodset II
2.20

Gjelleråsen creates 10% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Gjelleråsen
3.15
Strømsgodset II
2.54

allows per match

Gjelleråsen
1.85
Strømsgodset II
1.69

finishing

Gjelleråsen+0.00on par
Strømsgodset II+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

81%Yes
  • Yes81
  • No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gjelleråsen ↓

Strømsgodset II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
84%16%3.5
67%33%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

Gjelleråsen or draw
64%
Gjelleråsen or Strømsgodset II
81%
Draw or Strømsgodset II
56%

Winning margin

Gjelleråsen wins by 2+
26%
Strømsgodset II wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Gjelleråsen 1+ goals
91%
Gjelleråsen 2+ goals
69%
Gjelleråsen 3+ goals
43%
Strømsgodset II 1+ goals
89%
Strømsgodset II 2+ goals
64%
Strømsgodset II 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

Gjelleråsen (draw refunded)
55%
Strømsgodset II (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
75%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gjelleråsen at home — creates 3.15, concedes 1.85 · 13 matches

Strømsgodset II away — creates 2.54, concedes 1.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gjelleråsen attack 3.15 + Strømsgodset II defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 2.42

Strømsgodset II attack 2.54 + Gjelleråsen defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 2.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Gjelleråsen scores more
44%
level
19%
Strømsgodset II scores more
36%

Gjelleråsen at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Gjelleråsen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
A. P. Thorsen
19'
A. Skjold
60'
M. Hassan
74'
M. Farji
76'
Y. VaageOwn goal

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 6: Gjelleråsen 2–3 Strømsgodset II

Strømsgodset II beat Gjelleråsen 3-2 in 3. Division - Girone 6 on October 23, 2022.

Goals: A. P. Thorsen (15'), A. Skjold (19'), M. Hassan (60'), M. Farji (74'), Y. Vaage (76' o.g.).

The match was played at Li kunstgress in Hagan.