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Strømsgodset II vs Brann II — 2. Division - Group 2 2019

Strømsgodset II
Strømsgodset II
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Brann II
Brann II
5/30/20232. Division - Group 22. Division - Group 2 · Group 2 - 7Marienlyst Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Strømsgodset II46%
×Draw20%
Brann II34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Strømsgodset II
2.23
Brann II
1.89

Strømsgodset II creates 18% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Strømsgodset II
1.77
Brann II
1.69

allows per match

Strømsgodset II
2.08
Brann II
2.69

finishing

Strømsgodset II+0.00on par
Brann II+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Strømsgodset II ↓

Brann II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
58%42%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Strømsgodset II or draw
66%
Strømsgodset II or Brann II
80%
Draw or Brann II
54%

Winning margin

Strømsgodset II wins by 2+
27%
Brann II wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Strømsgodset II 1+ goals
89%
Strømsgodset II 2+ goals
65%
Strømsgodset II 3+ goals
38%
Brann II 1+ goals
85%
Brann II 2+ goals
56%
Brann II 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Strømsgodset II (draw refunded)
58%
Brann II (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Strømsgodset II at home — creates 1.77, concedes 2.08 · 13 matches

Brann II away — creates 1.69, concedes 2.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Strømsgodset II attack 1.77 + Brann II defence 2.69 → ÷2 → 2.23

Brann II attack 1.69 + Strømsgodset II defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Strømsgodset II scores more
46%
level
20%
Brann II scores more
34%

Strømsgodset II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Strømsgodset II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Strømsgodset II vs Brann II

Strømsgodset II beat Brann II 3-2 in 2. Division - Group 2 on May 30, 2023.

The match was played at Marienlyst Stadion in Drammen.