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Brann II vs Strømsgodset II — 2. Division - Group 2 2019

Brann II
Brann II
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Strømsgodset II
Strømsgodset II
11/11/20232. Division - Group 22. Division - Group 2 · Group 2 - 26Varden Amfi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Brann II53%
×Draw20%
Strømsgodset II27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brann II
2.31
Strømsgodset II
1.61

Brann II creates 43% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Brann II
2.31
Strømsgodset II
0.92

allows per match

Brann II
2.31
Strømsgodset II
2.31

finishing

Brann II+0.00on par
Strømsgodset II+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brann II ↓

Strømsgodset II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Brann II or draw
73%
Brann II or Strømsgodset II
80%
Draw or Strømsgodset II
47%

Winning margin

Brann II wins by 2+
33%
Strømsgodset II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Brann II 1+ goals
90%
Brann II 2+ goals
67%
Brann II 3+ goals
40%
Strømsgodset II 1+ goals
80%
Strømsgodset II 2+ goals
48%
Strømsgodset II 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Brann II (draw refunded)
66%
Strømsgodset II (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brann II at home — creates 2.31, concedes 2.31 · 13 matches

Strømsgodset II away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.31 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brann II attack 2.31 + Strømsgodset II defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 2.31

Strømsgodset II attack 0.92 + Brann II defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Brann II scores more
53%
level
20%
Strømsgodset II scores more
27%

Brann II at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Brann II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Division - Group 2: Brann II 2–2 Strømsgodset II

Brann II and Strømsgodset II drew 2-2 in 2. Division - Group 2 on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Varden Amfi in Bergen.