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Strømsgodset II vs Åssiden IF — 3. Division - Girone 3 2020

Strømsgodset II
Strømsgodset II
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Åssiden IF
Åssiden IF
9/6/20253. Division - Girone 33. Division - Girone 3 · Group 3 - 19Marienlyst Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Strømsgodset II55%
×Draw18%
Åssiden IF26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Strømsgodset II
2.74
Åssiden IF
1.89

Strømsgodset II creates 45% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 26 away

creates per match

Strømsgodset II
2.62
Åssiden IF
1.46

allows per match

Strømsgodset II
2.31
Åssiden IF
2.85

finishing

Strømsgodset II+0.00on par
Åssiden IF+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Strømsgodset II ↓

Åssiden IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
84%16%3.5
67%33%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

Strømsgodset II or draw
74%
Strømsgodset II or Åssiden IF
82%
Draw or Åssiden IF
45%

Winning margin

Strømsgodset II wins by 2+
36%
Åssiden IF wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Strømsgodset II 1+ goals
93%
Strømsgodset II 2+ goals
75%
Strømsgodset II 3+ goals
51%
Åssiden IF 1+ goals
85%
Åssiden IF 2+ goals
56%
Åssiden IF 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Strømsgodset II (draw refunded)
68%
Åssiden IF (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Strømsgodset II at home — creates 2.62, concedes 2.31 · 13 matches

Åssiden IF away — creates 1.46, concedes 2.85 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Strømsgodset II attack 2.62 + Åssiden IF defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 2.74

Åssiden IF attack 1.46 + Strømsgodset II defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Strømsgodset II scores more
55%
level
18%
Åssiden IF scores more
26%

Strømsgodset II at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Strømsgodset II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 3: Strømsgodset II 2–0 Åssiden IF

Strømsgodset II beat Åssiden IF 2-0 in 3. Division - Girone 3 on September 6, 2025.

The match was played at Marienlyst Stadion in Drammen.