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Åssiden IF vs Strømsgodset II — 3. Division - Girone 3 2020

Åssiden IF
Åssiden IF
FT
4 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
Strømsgodset II
Strømsgodset II
6/1/20253. Division - Girone 33. Division - Girone 3 · Group 3 - 8Åssiden Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Åssiden IF55%
×Draw18%
Strømsgodset II27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Åssiden IF
2.83
Strømsgodset II
1.96

Åssiden IF creates 44% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 13 away

creates per match

Åssiden IF
1.96
Strømsgodset II
1.38

allows per match

Åssiden IF
2.54
Strømsgodset II
3.69

finishing

Åssiden IF+0.00on par
Strømsgodset II+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

81%Yes
  • Yes81
  • No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Åssiden IF ↓

Strømsgodset II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
70%30%4.5
51%49%

Double chance

Åssiden IF or draw
73%
Åssiden IF or Strømsgodset II
82%
Draw or Strømsgodset II
45%

Winning margin

Åssiden IF wins by 2+
36%
Strømsgodset II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Åssiden IF 1+ goals
94%
Åssiden IF 2+ goals
77%
Åssiden IF 3+ goals
53%
Strømsgodset II 1+ goals
86%
Strømsgodset II 2+ goals
58%
Strømsgodset II 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Åssiden IF (draw refunded)
68%
Strømsgodset II (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
76%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Åssiden IF at home — creates 1.96, concedes 2.54 · 26 matches

Strømsgodset II away — creates 1.38, concedes 3.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Åssiden IF attack 1.96 + Strømsgodset II defence 3.69 → ÷2 → 2.83

Strømsgodset II attack 1.38 + Åssiden IF defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Åssiden IF scores more
55%
level
18%
Strømsgodset II scores more
27%

Åssiden IF at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Åssiden IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Åssiden IF vs Strømsgodset II

Åssiden IF beat Strømsgodset II 4-3 in 3. Division - Girone 3 on June 1, 2025.

The match was played at Åssiden Stadion in Drammen.