Strømsgodset II 2–3 Alta: Result & Stats

Strømsgodset II

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Alta

11/4/2023

2. Division - Group 2 · Group 2 - 25Marienlyst Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Strømsgodset II46%

×Draw21%

Alta33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Strømsgodset IIExpected goals in this matchAlta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.11

1.75

Strømsgodset II

2.11

Alta

1.75

Strømsgodset II creates 21% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 65 away

1.77

creates per match

1.42

2.08

allows per match

2.45

creates per match

Strømsgodset II

1.77

Alta

1.42

allows per match

Strømsgodset II

2.08

Alta

2.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Strømsgodset II+0.00on par

Alta+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Strømsgodset II ↓

Alta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Strømsgodset II or draw

67%

Strømsgodset II or Alta

79%

Draw or Alta

54%

Winning margin

Strømsgodset II wins by 2+

27%

Alta wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Strømsgodset II 1+ goals

88%

Strømsgodset II 2+ goals

62%

Strømsgodset II 3+ goals

35%

Alta 1+ goals

83%

Alta 2+ goals

52%

Alta 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Strømsgodset II (draw refunded)

59%

Alta (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Strømsgodset II at home — creates 1.77, concedes 2.08 · 13 matches

Alta away — creates 1.42, concedes 2.45 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Strømsgodset II attack 1.77 + Alta defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 2.11

Alta attack 1.42 + Strømsgodset II defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Strømsgodset II scores more

46%

level

21%

Alta scores more

33%

Strømsgodset II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Strømsgodset II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff