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Alta vs Strømsgodset II — 2. Division - Group 2 2019

Alta
Alta
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Strømsgodset II
Strømsgodset II
7/31/20232. Division - Group 22. Division - Group 2 · Group 2 - 13SmartDok Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Alta62%
×Draw19%
Strømsgodset II19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alta
2.33
Strømsgodset II
1.22

Alta creates 91% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 13 away

creates per match

Alta
2.34
Strømsgodset II
0.92

allows per match

Alta
1.52
Strømsgodset II
2.31

finishing

Alta+0.00on par
Strømsgodset II+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alta ↓

Strømsgodset II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Alta or draw
81%
Alta or Strømsgodset II
81%
Draw or Strømsgodset II
38%

Winning margin

Alta wins by 2+
40%
Strømsgodset II wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Alta 1+ goals
90%
Alta 2+ goals
67%
Alta 3+ goals
41%
Strømsgodset II 1+ goals
70%
Strømsgodset II 2+ goals
34%
Strømsgodset II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Alta (draw refunded)
77%
Strømsgodset II (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alta at home — creates 2.34, concedes 1.52 · 65 matches

Strømsgodset II away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.31 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alta attack 2.34 + Strømsgodset II defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 2.33

Strømsgodset II attack 0.92 + Alta defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Alta scores more
62%
level
19%
Strømsgodset II scores more
19%

Alta at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Alta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alta vs Strømsgodset II

Alta beat Strømsgodset II 2-1 in 2. Division - Group 2 on July 31, 2023.

The match was played at SmartDok Arena in Alta.