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Stomilanki Olsztyn W vs Slask Wroclaw W — Ekstraliga Women 2023

Stomilanki Olsztyn W
Stomilanki Olsztyn W
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Slask Wroclaw W
Slask Wroclaw W
3/2/2024Ekstraliga WomenEkstraliga Women · Round 12Stadion OSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Stomilanki Olsztyn W21%
×Draw19%
Slask Wroclaw W59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stomilanki Olsztyn W
1.36
Slask Wroclaw W
2.35

Slask Wroclaw W creates 73% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 33 away

creates per match

Stomilanki Olsztyn W
0.91
Slask Wroclaw W
1.91

allows per match

Stomilanki Olsztyn W
2.79
Slask Wroclaw W
1.82

finishing

Stomilanki Olsztyn W+0.00on par
Slask Wroclaw W+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stomilanki Olsztyn W ↓

Slask Wroclaw W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Stomilanki Olsztyn W or draw
41%
Stomilanki Olsztyn W or Slask Wroclaw W
81%
Draw or Slask Wroclaw W
79%

Winning margin

Stomilanki Olsztyn W wins by 2+
9%
Slask Wroclaw W wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Stomilanki Olsztyn W 1+ goals
74%
Stomilanki Olsztyn W 2+ goals
39%
Stomilanki Olsztyn W 3+ goals
16%
Slask Wroclaw W 1+ goals
90%
Slask Wroclaw W 2+ goals
68%
Slask Wroclaw W 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Stomilanki Olsztyn W (draw refunded)
27%
Slask Wroclaw W (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stomilanki Olsztyn W at home — creates 0.91, concedes 2.79 · 33 matches

Slask Wroclaw W away — creates 1.91, concedes 1.82 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stomilanki Olsztyn W attack 0.91 + Slask Wroclaw W defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.36

Slask Wroclaw W attack 1.91 + Stomilanki Olsztyn W defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Stomilanki Olsztyn W scores more
21%
level
19%
Slask Wroclaw W scores more
59%

Slask Wroclaw W at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Slask Wroclaw W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stomilanki Olsztyn W vs Slask Wroclaw W

Slask Wroclaw W beat Stomilanki Olsztyn W 3-0 in Ekstraliga Women on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion OSiR in Olsztyn.