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Slask Wroclaw W vs Stomilanki Olsztyn W — Ekstraliga Women 2023

Slask Wroclaw W
Slask Wroclaw W
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Stomilanki Olsztyn W
Stomilanki Olsztyn W
10/2/2024Ekstraliga WomenEkstraliga Women · Round 5Stadion Oporowska

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Slask Wroclaw W67%
×Draw18%
Stomilanki Olsztyn W16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slask Wroclaw W
2.54
Stomilanki Olsztyn W
1.17

Slask Wroclaw W creates 117% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 32 away

creates per match

Slask Wroclaw W
1.94
Stomilanki Olsztyn W
0.94

allows per match

Slask Wroclaw W
1.41
Stomilanki Olsztyn W
3.13

finishing

Slask Wroclaw W+0.00on par
Stomilanki Olsztyn W+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slask Wroclaw W ↓

Stomilanki Olsztyn W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Slask Wroclaw W or draw
84%
Slask Wroclaw W or Stomilanki Olsztyn W
82%
Draw or Stomilanki Olsztyn W
33%

Winning margin

Slask Wroclaw W wins by 2+
45%
Stomilanki Olsztyn W wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Slask Wroclaw W 1+ goals
92%
Slask Wroclaw W 2+ goals
72%
Slask Wroclaw W 3+ goals
46%
Stomilanki Olsztyn W 1+ goals
69%
Stomilanki Olsztyn W 2+ goals
33%
Stomilanki Olsztyn W 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Slask Wroclaw W (draw refunded)
81%
Stomilanki Olsztyn W (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slask Wroclaw W at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.41 · 32 matches

Stomilanki Olsztyn W away — creates 0.94, concedes 3.13 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slask Wroclaw W attack 1.94 + Stomilanki Olsztyn W defence 3.13 → ÷2 → 2.54

Stomilanki Olsztyn W attack 0.94 + Slask Wroclaw W defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Slask Wroclaw W scores more
67%
level
18%
Stomilanki Olsztyn W scores more
16%

Slask Wroclaw W at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Slask Wroclaw W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Slask Wroclaw W vs Stomilanki Olsztyn W

Slask Wroclaw W beat Stomilanki Olsztyn W 5-0 in Ekstraliga Women on October 2, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Oporowska in Wrocław.