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Stomilanki Olsztyn W vs GKS Katowice W — Ekstraliga Women 2023

Stomilanki Olsztyn W
Stomilanki Olsztyn W
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 4
GKS Katowice W
GKS Katowice W
8/16/2025Ekstraliga WomenEkstraliga Women · Round 2Stadion OSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Stomilanki Olsztyn W10%
×Draw15%
GKS Katowice W74%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stomilanki Olsztyn W
0.86
GKS Katowice W
2.60

GKS Katowice W creates 202% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 33 away

creates per match

Stomilanki Olsztyn W
0.91
GKS Katowice W
2.42

allows per match

Stomilanki Olsztyn W
2.79
GKS Katowice W
0.82

finishing

Stomilanki Olsztyn W+0.00on par
GKS Katowice W+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stomilanki Olsztyn W ↓

GKS Katowice W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–18%
0–211%
0–39%
0–46%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Stomilanki Olsztyn W or draw
26%
Stomilanki Olsztyn W or GKS Katowice W
85%
Draw or GKS Katowice W
90%

Winning margin

Stomilanki Olsztyn W wins by 2+
3%
GKS Katowice W wins by 2+
52%

Team goals

Stomilanki Olsztyn W 1+ goals
58%
Stomilanki Olsztyn W 2+ goals
21%
Stomilanki Olsztyn W 3+ goals
6%
GKS Katowice W 1+ goals
92%
GKS Katowice W 2+ goals
73%
GKS Katowice W 3+ goals
47%

Draw no bet

Stomilanki Olsztyn W (draw refunded)
12%
GKS Katowice W (draw refunded)
88%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stomilanki Olsztyn W at home — creates 0.91, concedes 2.79 · 33 matches

GKS Katowice W away — creates 2.42, concedes 0.82 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stomilanki Olsztyn W attack 0.91 + GKS Katowice W defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.86

GKS Katowice W attack 2.42 + Stomilanki Olsztyn W defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Stomilanki Olsztyn W scores more
10%
level
15%
GKS Katowice W scores more
74%

GKS Katowice W at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "GKS Katowice W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ekstraliga Women: Stomilanki Olsztyn W 1–4 GKS Katowice W

GKS Katowice W beat Stomilanki Olsztyn W 4-1 in Ekstraliga Women on August 16, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion OSiR in Olsztyn.