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GKS Katowice W vs Stomilanki Olsztyn W — Ekstraliga Women 2023

GKS Katowice W
GKS Katowice W
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Stomilanki Olsztyn W
Stomilanki Olsztyn W
3/9/2024Ekstraliga WomenEkstraliga Women · Round 13Stadion ul. Bukowa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

GKS Katowice W80%
×Draw13%
Stomilanki Olsztyn W8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GKS Katowice W
3.00
Stomilanki Olsztyn W
0.84

GKS Katowice W creates 257% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 32 away

creates per match

GKS Katowice W
2.88
Stomilanki Olsztyn W
0.94

allows per match

GKS Katowice W
0.75
Stomilanki Olsztyn W
3.13

finishing

GKS Katowice W+0.00on par
Stomilanki Olsztyn W+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GKS Katowice W ↓

Stomilanki Olsztyn W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–16%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

GKS Katowice W or draw
92%
GKS Katowice W or Stomilanki Olsztyn W
87%
Draw or Stomilanki Olsztyn W
20%

Winning margin

GKS Katowice W wins by 2+
60%
Stomilanki Olsztyn W wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

GKS Katowice W 1+ goals
95%
GKS Katowice W 2+ goals
79%
GKS Katowice W 3+ goals
56%
Stomilanki Olsztyn W 1+ goals
57%
Stomilanki Olsztyn W 2+ goals
21%
Stomilanki Olsztyn W 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

GKS Katowice W (draw refunded)
91%
Stomilanki Olsztyn W (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GKS Katowice W at home — creates 2.88, concedes 0.75 · 32 matches

Stomilanki Olsztyn W away — creates 0.94, concedes 3.13 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GKS Katowice W attack 2.88 + Stomilanki Olsztyn W defence 3.13 → ÷2 → 3.00

Stomilanki Olsztyn W attack 0.94 + GKS Katowice W defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

GKS Katowice W scores more
80%
level
13%
Stomilanki Olsztyn W scores more
8%

GKS Katowice W at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "GKS Katowice W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: GKS Katowice W vs Stomilanki Olsztyn W

GKS Katowice W beat Stomilanki Olsztyn W 3-0 in Ekstraliga Women on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion ul. Bukowa in Katowice.