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Stomilanki Olsztyn W vs Czarni Sosnowiec W — Ekstraliga Women 2023

Stomilanki Olsztyn W
Stomilanki Olsztyn W
FT
2 – 7
HT: 1 – 2
Czarni Sosnowiec W
Czarni Sosnowiec W
3/9/2025Ekstraliga WomenEkstraliga Women · Round 14Stadion OSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Stomilanki Olsztyn W9%
×Draw14%
Czarni Sosnowiec W76%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stomilanki Olsztyn W
0.88
Czarni Sosnowiec W
2.79

Czarni Sosnowiec W creates 217% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 33 away

creates per match

Stomilanki Olsztyn W
0.91
Czarni Sosnowiec W
2.79

allows per match

Stomilanki Olsztyn W
2.79
Czarni Sosnowiec W
0.85

finishing

Stomilanki Olsztyn W+0.00on par
Czarni Sosnowiec W+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stomilanki Olsztyn W ↓

Czarni Sosnowiec W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–210%
0–39%
0–47%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–24%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Stomilanki Olsztyn W or draw
24%
Stomilanki Olsztyn W or Czarni Sosnowiec W
86%
Draw or Czarni Sosnowiec W
91%

Winning margin

Stomilanki Olsztyn W wins by 2+
3%
Czarni Sosnowiec W wins by 2+
56%

Team goals

Stomilanki Olsztyn W 1+ goals
59%
Stomilanki Olsztyn W 2+ goals
22%
Stomilanki Olsztyn W 3+ goals
6%
Czarni Sosnowiec W 1+ goals
94%
Czarni Sosnowiec W 2+ goals
76%
Czarni Sosnowiec W 3+ goals
52%

Draw no bet

Stomilanki Olsztyn W (draw refunded)
11%
Czarni Sosnowiec W (draw refunded)
89%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stomilanki Olsztyn W at home — creates 0.91, concedes 2.79 · 33 matches

Czarni Sosnowiec W away — creates 2.79, concedes 0.85 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stomilanki Olsztyn W attack 0.91 + Czarni Sosnowiec W defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.88

Czarni Sosnowiec W attack 2.79 + Stomilanki Olsztyn W defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Stomilanki Olsztyn W scores more
9%
level
14%
Czarni Sosnowiec W scores more
76%

Czarni Sosnowiec W at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Czarni Sosnowiec W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ekstraliga Women: Stomilanki Olsztyn W 2–7 Czarni Sosnowiec W

Czarni Sosnowiec W beat Stomilanki Olsztyn W 7-2 in Ekstraliga Women on March 9, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion OSiR in Olsztyn.