Czarni Sosnowiec W 5–3 Stomilanki Olsztyn W

Czarni Sosnowiec W

FT

5 – 3

HT: 3 – 0

Stomilanki Olsztyn W

8/23/2025

Ekstraliga Women · Round 3Stadion Ludowy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Czarni Sosnowiec W81%

×Draw11%

Stomilanki Olsztyn W7%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Czarni Sosnowiec WExpected goals in this matchStomilanki Olsztyn W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.30

0.93

Czarni Sosnowiec W

3.30

Stomilanki Olsztyn W

0.93

Czarni Sosnowiec W creates 255% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 32 away

3.47

creates per match

0.94

0.91

allows per match

3.13

creates per match

Czarni Sosnowiec W

3.47

Stomilanki Olsztyn W

0.94

allows per match

Czarni Sosnowiec W

0.91

Stomilanki Olsztyn W

3.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Czarni Sosnowiec W+0.00on par

Stomilanki Olsztyn W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Czarni Sosnowiec W ↓

Stomilanki Olsztyn W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–15%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–19%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–17%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (9%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Czarni Sosnowiec W or draw

93%

Czarni Sosnowiec W or Stomilanki Olsztyn W

89%

Draw or Stomilanki Olsztyn W

19%

Winning margin

Czarni Sosnowiec W wins by 2+

63%

Stomilanki Olsztyn W wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Czarni Sosnowiec W 1+ goals

96%

Czarni Sosnowiec W 2+ goals

83%

Czarni Sosnowiec W 3+ goals

62%

Stomilanki Olsztyn W 1+ goals

61%

Stomilanki Olsztyn W 2+ goals

24%

Stomilanki Olsztyn W 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Czarni Sosnowiec W (draw refunded)

92%

Stomilanki Olsztyn W (draw refunded)

8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Czarni Sosnowiec W at home — creates 3.47, concedes 0.91 · 32 matches

Stomilanki Olsztyn W away — creates 0.94, concedes 3.13 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Czarni Sosnowiec W attack 3.47 + Stomilanki Olsztyn W defence 3.13 → ÷2 → 3.30

Stomilanki Olsztyn W attack 0.94 + Czarni Sosnowiec W defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Czarni Sosnowiec W scores more

81%

level

11%

Stomilanki Olsztyn W scores more

7%

Czarni Sosnowiec W at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Czarni Sosnowiec W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff