Stomil Olsztyn 1–1 Siarka Tarnobrzeg

Stomil Olsztyn

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Siarka Tarnobrzeg

5/28/2023

II Liga - East · Round 33Stadion OSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Stomil Olsztyn53%

×Draw24%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stomil OlsztynExpected goals in this matchSiarka Tarnobrzeg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.03

Stomil Olsztyn

1.69

Siarka Tarnobrzeg

1.03

Stomil Olsztyn creates 64% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 17 away

1.49

creates per match

1.00

1.06

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Stomil Olsztyn

1.49

Siarka Tarnobrzeg

1.00

allows per match

Stomil Olsztyn

1.06

Siarka Tarnobrzeg

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stomil Olsztyn+0.00on par

Siarka Tarnobrzeg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stomil Olsztyn ↓

Siarka Tarnobrzeg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Stomil Olsztyn or draw

77%

Stomil Olsztyn or Siarka Tarnobrzeg

76%

Draw or Siarka Tarnobrzeg

47%

Winning margin

Stomil Olsztyn wins by 2+

29%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Stomil Olsztyn 1+ goals

82%

Stomil Olsztyn 2+ goals

50%

Stomil Olsztyn 3+ goals

24%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg 1+ goals

64%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg 2+ goals

28%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Stomil Olsztyn (draw refunded)

70%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stomil Olsztyn at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.06 · 35 matches

Siarka Tarnobrzeg away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stomil Olsztyn attack 1.49 + Siarka Tarnobrzeg defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.69

Siarka Tarnobrzeg attack 1.00 + Stomil Olsztyn defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Stomil Olsztyn scores more

53%

level

24%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg scores more

23%

Stomil Olsztyn at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Stomil Olsztyn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff